Some NFL Draft analysts suggest that they wouldn’t be surprised to see four quarterbacks be in the first five selections in the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s hard to say if that will happen, but Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy are all projected to be early draft picks. Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are also likely first-rounders, making for the potential of six first-round picks being at the quarterback position.
So, 18.75% (6 of 32 1st-round picks) are projected to be players at the quarterback position.
Most folks would agree that quarterback is the most important position in today’s NFL. But are teams putting too much draft equity into first-round picks for quarterbacks? Let’s look closer at quarterbacks and draft rounds of existing NFL quarterbacks and explore more.
2023 NFL Quarterbacks and Their NFL Draft Positions
Here’s a list of starting QBs in the NFL last season (2023) with their draft round.
First Half of Teams
- Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray – 1st Round (2019)
- Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Ridder – 3rd Round (2022)
- Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson – 1st Round (2018)
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen – 1st Round (2018)
- Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young – 1st Round (2023)
- Chicago Bears: Justin Fields – 1st Round (2021)
- Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow – 1st Round (2020)
- Cleveland Browns: DeShaun Watson – 1st Round (2017)
- Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott – 4th Round (2016)
- Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson – 3rd Round (2012)
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff – 1st Round (2016)
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love – 1st Round (2020)
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud – 1st Round (2023)
- Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson – 1st Round (2023)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence – 1st Round (2021)
- Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes – 1st Round (2017)
Second Half of Teams
- Las Vegas Raiders: Aidan O’Connell – 4th Round (2023)
- Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert – 1st Round (2020)
- Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford – 1st Round (2009)
- Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa – 1st Round (2020)
- Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins – 4th Round (2012)
- New England Patriots: Mac Jones – 1st Round (2021)
- New Orleans Saints: Derek Carr – 2nd Round (2014)
- New York Giants: Daniel Jones – 1st Round (2019)
- New York Jets: Aaron Rodgers – 1st Round (2005)
- Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts – 2nd Round (2020)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Pickett – 1st Round (2023)
- San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy – 7th Round (2022)
- Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith – 2nd Round (2013)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield – 1st Round (2018)
- Tennessee Titans: Will Levis – 2nd Round (2023)
- Washington Commanders: Sam Howell – 5th Round (2022)
2023 QBs By Round Stats
So, what can we say about this information?
- Of the 32 quarterbacks starting for NFL teams in 2023, about 65% (21 of 32) were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.
- 12.5% (4 of 32) of 2023 starting QBs were 2nd Round selections.
- About 6% (2 of 32) of 2023 starting quarterbacks were 3rd Round picks.
- About 9% (3 of 32) were drafted in the 4th Round.
- About 3% (1 of 32) were drafted in the 5th Round.
- No starter was drafted in the 6th Round of 2023 starting QBs.
- About 3% (1 of 32) were drafted in the 7th Round. Yes, that was Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy.
See our Football Terms and Definitions page.
Conclusions of QB Round Drafting
Here are some of my thoughts:
- Nearly two out of three—65%—of last year’s starters were drafted in the first round; if you’re an NFL team looking for a future quarterback starter, it makes sense to focus on drafting your quarterback starter in the first round.
- The case becomes even stronger if you subjectively rate first-round quarterback successes vs. all other rounds. One might rate the top five NFL starters who were first-round picks over the length of their career like this: 1.) Patrick Mahomes, 2.) Josh Allen, 3.) Joe Burrow, 4.) Lamar Jackson, and 5.) Matthew Stafford. Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love are knocking on the door.
- Top quarterbacks drafted in other rounds might be: 1.) Russell Wilson, 2.) Dak Prescott, 3.) Kirk Cousins, 4.) Brock Purdy, and 5.) Jalen Hurts.
- When comparing the two lists, it’s clear that the quarterbacks drafted in the first round are stronger as a group and have higher ceilings.
How Good Are NFL Teams At Selecting Quarterback?
Let’s start with some info.
The Bad
- Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were drafted ahead of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in 2018.
- Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson were picked before Patrick Mahomes in 2017.
- Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgwater were the first three QBs drafted in 2014.
- The only quarterback taken in the first round in 2022 was Kenny Pickett.
- Outside of Trevor Lawrence, who was taken with the first overall pick, the top quarterback picks in the 2021 NFL Draft were Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones.
The Better
- The top quarterbacks selected in the 2020 NFL Draft were Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love.
- The 2023 first-round quarterback class is too early to judge but looks promising with Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Anthony Richarson.
- The only quarterback taken in the first round in 2022 was Kenny Pickett. (Yes, this belongs in both The Bad and The Better.)
Analysis of NFL Teams Drafting Quarterbacks in First-Round
What can we conclude from all of this? Here’s my take:
- The quarterback position is a tough one to project success at. Unless the quarterback is head-and-shoulders ahead of their peers, it’s difficult to say how successful a college talent will perform in the NFL.
- The differences between some heavy-run-oriented college teams and the pass-oriented NFL make it even tougher. Case in point: J.J. McCarthy. He appears to have all the tools based on pro-day performance and leadership skills. But the Michigan Wolverines fielded a running offense. How does he project? It’s tough to say, especially when so much is riding on a first-round pick.
- How much an NFL team is willing to give up to move up in the draft is based on many factors, including the strength of the quarterback class in the year of the draft, the strength of the quarterback class in following years, how desperate they are to fill the quarterback slot, the answer to the question “Is this QB pick the missing piece,” the job security of the GM and coach, their next best alternative (can their back-up QB be a starter), and projected team ticket sales.
Importance of the 1st-Round Quarterback Pick
- A first-round quarterback selection is a marquee pick. The GM and the coach must get it right.
- It makes sense for NFL teams needing a QB1 to invest in a high first-round pick for a strong quarterback class. Can you find a hidden gem in the later rounds? Absolutely—ask the 49ers. But even so, the overall quality of first-round picks provides teams a better chance of winning it all.
- The counterpoint that Tom Brady was a sixth-round pick can be made. But I think his performance was an outlier. Much of his success in the early years was a function of playing with a strong team on many fronts, e.g., coaching, defense, and special teams. Brady wasn’t called on to lead the team in as big a way as many quarterbacks do now.
The 2024 NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 24, in Detroit, Michigan. It will be fun to track and see who wins the quarterback lottery.
By Mike O’Halloran
Founder and Editor, Sports Feel Good Stories
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